Last August, my commentary concluded with this observation: “One thing is certain: By next August, both parties will have completed their primary elections … and named their nominees. We already know the stakes in 2024: Nothing less than the future of our democracy, the security of our planet, and the conditions under which our nation may yet endure. Lincoln warned us in 1862 that ‘we shall nobly save, or meanly lose, the last best hope of earth,’” (“We need to find common ground as we head toward the next election,” Aug. 17, 2023).
It remains to be seen whether we will “nobly save” our democracy in the November election, but the odds have improved measurably.
Democrats completed their virtual roll call of the Democratic National Convention and officially named Kamala Harris as their nominee for president, acting with dazzling speed and unity after President Joe Biden gracefully withdrew and endorsed Harris on July 21.
Then, Harris announced her choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate for vice president.
Throughout the long, tedious months of this marathon of a campaign—at least until Biden’s stunning withdrawal—it looked as though Donald Trump had a clear lead over Biden: Earlier in July, Trump literally dodged an assassin’s bullet in Pennsylvania. The smoothly orchestrated GOP Convention in Milwaukee gave Republicans enough wind at their backs to consider “widening the map.” Pundits talked about how Trump could put states like Wisconsin, Virginia, New Mexico, and even Minnesota and New York into play. Democrats were sleepless with anxiety (including myself!).
Together, Harris and Walz have effectively turned the tables on the entire race: Even before Walz was announced, several reliable polls showed that Harris was ahead or tied in six of the seven “battleground” states that will decide the Electoral College. Earlier this month, the average of the nation’s polls from 538 showed that Harris was already out ahead of Trump in the popular vote, 45 percent to 43.5 percent, essentially a dead heat. It’s too soon to see any polls that would show how the choice of Walz will affect the all-important “battleground states.”
Of course, it’s only the Electoral College that counts. If Democrats can hold their three “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, they could survive losses in the other battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada but still end up with 270 Electoral College votes … a bare one vote majority of the country’s 538 electoral votes.
And here’s where it gets incredibly complicated: That one vote is gained from the deeply Republican state of Nebraska. For decades, Cornhuskers have awarded their three House of Representatives Electoral College votes by district. Two of those three votes will go to Trump, but the Congressional District surrounding Omaha is expected to go to Harris/Walz as it did for Biden/Harris in 2020 and Obama/Biden in 2008. Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that don’t use a statewide “winner take all” rule. Expect to see Kamala Harris and Tim Walz shucking corn in beautiful downtown Omaha in the very near future!
Harris chose Tim Walz as her running mate with this arithmetic clearly in mind. Walz has it all: He shares Harris’ commitment to progressive policies, but with a Midwestern emphasis on serving and speaking with rural voters. He won’t need anyone to show him how to shuck an ear of corn. He seems to have excellent chemistry with Harris—and with everyone. Walz is the personification of “Minnesota nice.” He’s likeable. Walz has been described as “everyone’s perfect brother-in-law.” He’s the ideal foil for the “weird” GOP ticket.
Now with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as the ticket, Democrats are sporting two fresh faces with ample energy—as well as 130,000 new volunteers and hundreds of millions of dollars in donations, many from first-time donors. With a spring in our step, Democrats are leaning into the remaining sprint to Nov. 5. As we approach the finish line, a resounding Democratic victory is in sight—but even if it all comes down to that one vote from Omaha, it will echo through the ages.
And speaking of ages—now who’s the oldest presidential candidate in American history? Trump complained about how his campaign had wasted so much money attacking Biden over his age and alleged “cognitive decline.” Now, all that focus on cognitive decline and wandering speeches is focused right back on Trump.
The GOP campaign can’t discuss their faltering, doddering old man Trump anymore. Instead, they’re falling back on tried-and-true attacks on Harris’ ethnic identity and gender. They’re counting on the widespread fiction that American voters are “not yet ready” for a Black female president—or a president of South Asian descent—let alone all three!
By now, voters are not only ready but eager to restore that proud American tradition observed since 1796—with only one exception in 2021: A peaceful, constitutional transition of power that defines us as a people. Let’s pray for that outcome, regardless of who holds the most Electoral College votes that’ll be ceremoniously carried into the Capitol and counted, state by state (including Omaha’s), on Jan. 6, 2025.
John Ashbaugh never got past elementary calculus in math, but he can count Electoral College votes along with the best of them. Direct any challenges to his arithmetic by writing to [email protected].
